Health Care Whoah!

The following paragraph by Robert J. Samuelson in his December 7, 2009 Washington Post Op-Ed got me thinking:

"Health care is taking over government. Consider: In 1980, the federal government spent $65 billion on health care; that was 11 percent of all its spending. By 2008, health outlays had grown to $752 billion -- 25 percent of the total, one dollar in four."

Let's do some quick math. Using the numbers provided, the 1980 budget would have been $590 billion; the 2008 budget would have been $3.01 trillion. Considering the 1980 and 2008 health outlay sums, the growth rate would be 8.81% over that 29 year period. Using this figure, one could predict a government health outlay in 2020 (12 years from 2008) of $2.07 trillion.

However, the budget only grew by 5.78% per year over the same 1980 to 2008 time period. Using this figure, the 2020 budget would be $5.91 trillion, increasing health outlays to 35% of the budget.

What can we glean from all this information in correlation with the historical growth of the US GDP? Using 2000 dollars, the Q1 1980 GDP was $5.221 trillion, the Q1 2008 GDP was $13.367 trillion. That gives a growth rate of 3.29%. So the projected GDP in 2020 would be $19.7 trillion.

Hmm... $5.91 of $19.7 is 30%. The 2008 budget was approximately 22.5% of GDP. So the tax revenue burden will have to increase 33% by 2020. This begs the all important question, where will the Federal Government get the tax revenues to pay for everything? At some point the incentive to create wealth will disappear. What disaster will befall our country at that point?

In order to prevent this disaster, one should question how the Federal Government could be put in check in order to prevent it. Another more prudent question is what has changed in the past 100 years to put us into this current circumstance. I believe that the 16th and 17th Amendments are to blame. If taxes were apportioned by State, with State Representation restored to the US Senate as was originally devised by our Founding Fathers, a runaway Federal budget would be all but eliminated . No longer would Federal mandates on States be created without a means to pay for them, nor would any populace readily open their wallet to pay 40-50% Income Taxes; 50% Estate Taxes; 15-25% Capital Gains Taxes; 12.5% Social Security Taxes; 9-10% Sales Taxes; 2.5% Medicare Taxes; and 1.25% Property Taxes and all the other miscellaneous taxes burdened by productive Citizens.

There would be an absolute rejection of this confiscation of wealth, and most assuredly a rejection of the welfare state and the economic redistribution that occurs under it. Do either the Democrats or Republicans advocate restoring our Federal Republic? Do either the Democrats or Republicans warn us of the Economic tyranny that will occur in the not too distant future? The answer to both questions is no. The solution is to reject the current Political Party structure and elect Representatives that fundamentally understand both the premise of Liberty and why our Federal Republic was conceived the way it was in order to protect that Liberty.